NFL Picks – Week 4
Last Week: 4-8-2 Season: 20-24-2
ATLANTA (-7) over Arizona
Last week = fluke. Oh, and the Cards can’t make up their mind on who to start. That never helps.
CAROLINA (-7) over New Orleans
I’m not sure about making this team a 7-point favorite against the 3-0
Saints. But the Letdown Factor is definitely at play here, along with
the Monday Night Game Followed By a Road Game Corollary. And if you
look at it, the Panthers should have won last week more like 34-7
instead of 26-24. They turned the ball over three times in their own
territory, which isn’t likely to happen again. I think the Panthers are
going to win, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they lost. However, this is
a must-win game for the Panthers, who’d fall three games out of first
with a loss.
This is all a roundabout way of saying that Carolina almost always wins must-win games. And this one will be another one.
Minnesota (+1) over BUFFALO
Was that the real J.P. Losman last week…or the real one two weeks before?
My bet’s the former.
San Diego (-2.5) over BALTIMORE
The Sports Guy ranked the Chargers No. 1 in the league in his column
this week. I’m not sure I agree with him. But I do think the Bolts are
more than good enough to win this game against a bad offense.
Miami (-3.5) over HOUSTON
I don’t see any reason to pick the Texans until they win.
TENNESSEE (+9) over Dallas
A key rule in on the spread picking: Be leery of giving more than a
touchdown to a home underdog when the road team’s wide receiver may
have tried to kill himself last week.
San Francisco (+7) over KANSAS CITY
A month ago I picked the Chiefs to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
Now I’m picking them to lose to the NFL’s worst 2005 QB at home.
Welcome to the NFL.
Indianapolis (-9) over NY JETS
Another rout. Is it just me or do the Colts never seem to play more
than two tough games in the first five games of any given season?
ST. LOUIS (-5.5) over Detroit
It’s stupid how close the Lions are to being 0-16 right now.
Jacksonville (-3) over WASHINGTON
If the Jags are for real, they’ll rebound from last week’s tough loss in Indy to beat a decent Skins team on the road.
New England (+6) over CINCINNATI
Only the Patriots can convince me to pick them on the road against a playoff team with their joke of a receiving corps.
Cleveland (-3) over OAKLAND
A fellow poster of mine on North Side Baseball said it best: “The
Raiders should never be getting less than 7 points against anyone.”
CHICAGO (-3) over Seattle
This was picked for Seattle before Alexander was struck by the Madden Curse.
Green Bay (+11) over PHILADELPHIA
Next week is T.O. This week is way too many points being given to GB.